BTC inflows have been net negative throughout all trading platforms since last July. However, four large marketplaces have been operating counter to this pattern. It has almost an equal number of net positive inflows.
Since last July, there has been a cumulative net outflow of 46,000 BTC (approximately $1.8 billion at the present rate) from all cryptocurrency exchanges.
BTC Net Outflows & Inflows
As per figures from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode’s March 7 newsletter, only Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex, and FTX have witnessed positive net inflows of 207,000 Bitcoin (BTC). During the same timeframe, net outflows from all other marketplaces monitored reached 253,000 BTC.
From last July, FTX and Huobi have seen the most drastic adjustment in their BTC holdings. While FTX has more than tripled its BTC holdings to 103,200 today, Huobi’s holdings have shrunk to 12,300 BTC. This is approximately 6% of what it owned in March 2020, from over 400,000 BTC.
Net outflows have been stable from last year, with a few significant surges in August and, most recently, on January 11.
Glassnode, on the other hand, relates the current fairly low inflows to “the scale of market volatility at the moment,” and argues that the cryptocurrency trading market generally has turned to derivatives trading rather than spot selling to mitigate risk.
Exchange inflows are analysed to assist determine if investors are planning to liquidate or hoard their coins. Net inflows indicate incoming selling pressure, whilst net outflows indicate increased hodling.
The tokens that remain on-chain have a realized value of $24,100 per BTC, implying that most hodlers benefit by 63 percent. The standard value of all coins when they were moved on-chain is known as the realized price.
The realized price differs from the expected price of $39,200. As per CoinGecko, BTC was trading at $38,346 at the time of writing, so the indicated price is presently barely below break-even.
Short-term Holders & Long-term Holders
Short-term holders are currently 15 percent underwater. As the going value of bitcoins that exchanged on-chain in the last 155 days is $46,400, according to Glassnode.
Aside from the low amount of inflows and outflows, the profit and loss (PnL) ratio of sellers has been leveling since the beginning of 2021. According to Glassnode, long-term holders (LTH) are becoming tired of selling. Even though a significant LTH capitulation event, as observed at previous cyclical bottoms, has yet to occur.
It went on to say that the exceptionally low amount of both STH and LTH losses may be indicating an increase in the likelihood of aggregate seller exhaustion. The newsletter warns that there is still a chance of a final and total capitulation of both STH and LTH. It also has occurred at prior cycle bottoms.
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