According to the co-founder of Huobi, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin (BTC) may not see a bull market until late 2024 or the beginning of 2025.
Bitcoin bull markets, according to Du Jun, are intimately linked to a process known as halving, which happens every few years.
This is in reference to so-called miners on the bitcoin network. They use powerful customized computers to solve complicated mathematical riddles in order to verify bitcoin network transactions. As a result, miners get paid in bitcoin.
What is Halving?
Halving is a feature of bitcoin’s underlying code that reduces the reward given to “miners” for verifying transactions on the cryptocurrency’s network by half. It occurs approximately every four years.
The most recent halving occurred in May 2020, and BTC reached an all-time high of over $68,000 in 2021. When the implementation of halving was in 2016, a similar situation occurred. The following year, bitcoin reached a new high, which was a record at the time.
BTC fell after both of these peaks. BTC is currently trading about 40% below its November high. However it is still much above some of January’s lows. The next halving will take place in 2024.
CNBC translates Du’s Mandarin as saying, “If this cycle continues, we are currently in the early phases of a bear market.”
“It’s incredibly difficult to predict precisely because there are so many other events that can affect the market,” he said. He was citing international issues such as conflict and the recent Covid as examples.
“If this cycle continues, we won’t see the next bull market on bitcoin until the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025.”
Some market participants are concerned that a so-called “crypto winter.”. An extended period of bearishness, is on the horizon, as a result of the recent price decrease in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may move sideways during these periods.
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